Letter confidential Asie21-Futuribles nr 178/2023-12 English version

1- MAJOR RECENT EVENTS AND FUTURE CHALLENGES

EURASIA

Kazakhstan Kazakhstan emancipates, the EEU disintegrates, Rémi Perelman, Asie21

Box 1 A reminder of Kazakhstan’s two successive leaders

Box 2 The riots of January 2022, a well-planned coup attempt, the CSTO

Box 3 Russia and Belarus, towards integration?

Box 4 France-Kazakhstan relations in brief

FAR EAST

South Korea A little closer to NATO, Arnaud Leveau, Asie21

South Korea – United States ANS for Seoul, Edouard Valensi, Asie21

South Korea – Japan – United States East of the new, Edouard Valensi, Asie21

Taiwan Presidential election in January 2024, Act II scene 1 : Failed « blue-white » alliance, Catherine Bouchet-Orphelin, Asie21

Box 1 Non-agreement meeting: atmosphere

Box 2 Chao Shao-kang rallies the KMT’s « dark blues »

Taiwan Act II scene 2, The United States makes a 5e arms sale, Catherine Bouchet-Orphelin, Asie21

Box 1 The Syun An system

Taiwan Act II scene 3 : Ke P. stands out in the election campaign, Catherine Bouchet-Orphelin, Asie21

Taiwan Act II scene 4 : Beijing’s economic coercion of Taiwan via the ECFA, Catherine Bouchet-Orphelin, Asie21

Box 1 ECFA

SOUTHEAST ASIA

Southeast Asia Israeli-Palestinian war: fear of a conflagration, Sophie Boisseau du Rocher, Asie21

South China Sea – Philippines – United States – Australia Launch of bilateral air and naval patrols, Daniel Schaeffer, Asie21

Box 1 Mixed Filipino-American patrols

Box 2 Composition of mixed Filipino – Australian patrols

SOUTH ASIA

Pakistan – Afghanistan Forced deportation of Afghan refugees in Pakistan, Alain Lamballe, Asie21

2- GRAPPlINGS

China – Africa

  • Angola-USA: get out of the way…
  • Other countries – Angola: from the Lobito corridor
  • Mozambique: commitments

China – Argentina Quick, water in the wine

China – Middle East Foot change

China – Russia Vassalage

China – Singapore – Mercosur Divergences

China – Venezuela A new « Operation Z »?

South Korea – Saudi Arabia Money is everything

India – Mozambique Coal-fired

India – Tanzania Location

3 – POINTS TO WATCH

Burma Ethnic groups go on the offensive, Jean Perrin, Asie21

China – Baltic States  Between appeasement and threats, Laurent Amelot, Asie21

North Korea – United States North Korea threatens to shoot down US satellites in the event of a « declaration of war », Patrick Hébert, Asie21

Sri Lanka – United States  The United States lands in Colombo, Laurent Amelot, Asie21

4 – THE WORDS OF THE LAMPYRE 

United Arab Emirates – World

Dubai 28: acopalypse now, Maurice Rossin, Asie21

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