Confidential Letter Asie21-Futuribles n° 180/2024-02 summary

1- MAJOR RECENT EVENTS AND FUTURE CHALLENGES

FAR EAST

China – Afghanistan A Taliban ambassador in Beijing, Patrick Hébert, Asie21

China – United States – Africa Competition for access to Central Africa’s critical minerals, Laurent Amelot, Asie21

China – Europe – France Typhoon on the Charente, wooden dragon in Beijing, hangover in CognacMaurice Rossin, Asie21

China – Red Sea A strange strategy, really?, Daniel Schaeffer, Asie21

Box 1  The « mysterious » Sea Legend Shipping company

Box 2  Chinese shipping clearing companies

Box 3 A brief overview of the negative impact of the situation on the Chinese economy

Box 4 Stereotypical Chinese defeat speeches

China – Yemen – Iran China, mediator in the Red Sea, Edouard Valensi, Asie21

Box 1 2024: the Republic of Yemen

Box 2 Invincible forces

North Korea North Korea reveals itself, Edouard Valensi, Asie21

South Korea Technology leaks, Arnaud Leveau, Asie21

Taiwan Act V – Epilogue: a mainland Chinese exiles view of the Taiwanese elections, Catherine Bouchet-Orphelin, Asie21

Box 1 He Long‘s interview with Wang Zhian

Box 2  Condolences to the family of Chen Chun-han

Taiwan – China The M503 air corridor: nibbling Catherine Bouchet-Orphelin, Asie21

Box 1 History of the M503 air corridor

Box 2 The Taiwan Strait median line

SOUTHEAST ASIA

Malaysia  Malaysia caught in its own contradictions, Sophie Boisseau du Rocher, Asie21

SOUTH ASIA

Pakistan Pakistani elections: one winner too many, Alain Lamballe, Asie21

Pakistan – Iran Confrontation and reconciliation, Alain Lamballe, Asie21

INDOPACIFIC

Indian Ocean 7th Indian Ocean Conference 2024, Rémi Perelman, Asie21

Box 1 Organizations highlighted at the 7e Conference

Box 2 An update on India’s relations with Australia and the Pacific Islands

Box 3 Multi-aligned, structured « minilateral » groupings The example of the France-India-United Arab Emirates Trilateral Group

PACIFIC

Papua New Guinea – Australia – China Australian charm offensive, Laurent Amelot, Asie21

2- GRAPPLINGS

Bangladesh – Guinea Bissau Workforce

China – Africa

  • Angola – Cabinda: a negotiator?
  • Cape Verde – CPLP: Macao forum
  • Eswatini: tenacity
  • Equatorial Guinea – Russia: insistence
  • Mozambique: military presence
  • Mozambique: reactions

China – Brazil Getting closer

China – India – Ethiopia Coffee for sale

China – Switzerland – India Renewal (bis)

China – Tuvalu Issues

North Korea – Angola Barter

Iran – Angola Retaliation?

Russia – Africa After Wagner

Russia – Mozambique On the mute

3- POINTS TO WATCH

New Zealand When the Red Sea brings the United States closer, Arnaud Leveau, Asie21

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