Confidential letter Asie21-Futuribles n° 162/2022-06

Description

Knowing to understand,  understand to anticipate, anticipate to decide, decide to act

1 – RECENT MAJOR EVENTS AND FUTURE CHALLENGES

FAR EAST

China 2022: decisive year for Xi Jinping, Philippe Delalande, Asie21

China Space: Shenzhou-14, Philippe Coué, Asie21

China – United States Xi: « Joe, relax! »  Edouard Valensi, Asia21

Japan: Its security needs, Patrick Hébert, Asia21

Box 1: Competitiveness problems of the Japanese arms industry

Taiwan – China – United States Shangri-La Dialogue: Hopes for Stability and Concerns about Instability in the Taiwan Strait and the Region, Catherine Bouchet-Orphelin, Asia21

Box 1: Indo-Pacific Partnership for Maritime Domain Awareness (IPMDA)

Taiwan – China – United States Maritime Law: Fighting back, Catherine Bouchet-Orphelin, Asia21

Box 1: Territorial waters, D. Schaeffer

Taiwan – United States: No American support for Taiwanese independence, Catherine Bouchet-Orphelin, Asie21

SOUTH ASIA

South Asia: Four ports between India and China, Rémi Perelman, Asie21

Pakistan – Afghanistan Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan, Pakistan and Afghanistan, Alain Lamballe, Asie21

INDO-PACIFIC

India – United States – Russia – China Could India’s reluctance to sanction Russia influence the Quad? Guillaume Bombenger, Asia21 guest author

Box 1: From the SDT to the AUKUS, what prerogatives?

Indo-Pacific Quad – Effervescence, Daniel Schaeffer, Asie21

Box 1: The message of the « peace and stability » part of the joint communiqué

Box 2: Behind the synthetic formulas, the concrete aspects of the program

Box 3: Military feverishness upstream, around, and downstream of the

2- GRAPPLING

China – Australia – Africa Lithium needs move the lines

China – India – Mozambique – Other countries Graphite

China – Japan – India – Mozambique Commitments

China – Japan – Mozambique – Other countries Dam in sight but far away

China – Switzerland Struggling

China – Switzerland Recovery

China – Ukraine Manner of expression

India – Mozambique – Brazil Things are moving in Moatize

East Timor Democrat

3 – ALERTS

Eurasia This is only the beginning (Это только начало), Maurice Rossin, Asie21

4 – POINTS TO WATCH

Eurasia Europe is closing to Russia … which is opening to Asia, Maurice Rossin, Asie21

Eurasia Ukrainian wheat : the danger is not where we think it is, Maurice Rossin, Asie21

India – Mauritius First Indian military base abroad, Alain Lamballe, Asie21