Confidentiel letter Asie21-Futuribles n° 160/2022-04

Description

1 – RECENT MAJOR EVENTS AND FUTURE CHALLENGES

EURASIA 

Russia  The future of polar cooperation, Rémi Perelman, Asie21

Box 1 Antarctic Treaty, excerpts

Box 2 Territorial claims vs. space of peace, details

Box 3  Antarctic scientific research, elements

Russia – Asia – Europe – United States  The great Europe-Asia rift , Maurice Rossin, Asie21

Box 1  The heart of the association between Europe and Russia 

Box 2  The great poet Blok wrote in 1914, the Scythians….

MIDDLE ASIA

Should we fear war in Ukraine? Patrick Dombrowsky, Asie21

Les votes des États 

FAR EAST 

China The great plague will not come from China! Philippe Delalande, Asie21

China – United States – Taiwan  Kissinger, bin Laden and Zelensky, Catherine Bouchet-Orphelin, Asie21

China – India  Asia recomposed, Edouard Valensi, Asie21

North Korea – South Korea  A nuclear mediation? Why not? Edouard Valensi, Asie21

Taiwan – China – United States  « Act III Scene 4: Nancy Pelosi Cancels Trip to Taiwan, Catherine Bouchet-Orphelin, Asie21 

Why might Beijing react drastically in the case of a Nancy Pelosi visit to Taiwan? There is a precedent 

SOUTHEAST ASIA

Southeast Asia What are the perceptions on the war in Ukraine?Sophie Boisseau du Rocher, Asie21

South China Sea – Philippines – China – USA  New Chinese transgressions against Philippine marine rights, Daniel Schaeffer, Asie 21

Box 1 The Chinese incursion in the Sulu Sea

Box 2 Chinese coast guard provocations against Philippine coast guard around Scarborough Reefs

Box 3 The Sino-Philippines interviews of April 2022

Box 4 U.S. denunciations of increased militarization of Chinese-occupied sites in the Spratly Islands

Box 5 Balikatan 2022

SOUTH ASIA

India – Pakistan  Indian missile crashes in Pakistan, Alain Lamballe, Asie21

PACIFIC

Solomon Islands – China A security agreement pending, Patrick Hebert, Asie21

Federated States of Micronesia (FSM)

2-GRAPPLING

Bangladesh Cotton

China – Africa

• Angola: agreement 
• Angola: detbt
• Madagascar: rice

Japon – Mozambique Indirect military assistance

Macao Forum 

Russia – China Gaz

East Timor Port of Tirar

3 – ALERTS

China – Europe  Chinese surface-to-air missiles for Serbia, Edouard Valensi Asie21

South Korea Conservative opposition in power, Jean Perrin, Asie21

4 – POINTS TO WATCH

Taïwan – Chine – États-Unis  A possible war in Taiwan? « Ukraine today, Taiwan tomorrow »? Catherine Bouchet-Orphelin, Asie21

Taiwan – China – United States  Evergreen in Shanghai, CSSC on the blacklist, Catherine Bouchet-Orphelin, Asie21

Taiwan – United States  U.S. Congressmen call for Taiwan to be included in the FPEI, Catherine Bouchet-Orphelin, Asie21

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